USDOLLAR Tests June High; Overbought for First Time in 2014
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Talking Points:
- GBP/USD Continues to Search for Support as RSI Fails to Retain Bullish Trend
- USD/CAD Breakout Gathers Pace; Trades Back Above Former-Support
- USDOLLAR Coming Up Against Trendline Resistance Ahead of 2Q GDP, FOMC
Index |
Last |
High |
Low |
Daily Change (%) |
Daily Range (% of ATR) |
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index |
10534.94 |
10542.06 |
10489.14 |
0.40 |
208.25% |
GBP/USD:
- Will continue to watch downside targets as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to preserve the bullish momentum carried over from 2013.
- Will retain a constructive long-term view as long as GBP/USD holds above June low (1.6697); Bank of England (BoE) remains on course to normalize monetary policy ahead of Fed.
- However, DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) for GBP/USD has flipped, with the ratio now standing at +1.05; retail crowd has turned net-long the British Pound.
USD/CAD:
- Bullish RSI momentum favors bullish breakout as USD/CAD carves long-term higher-low in July.
- A break above 1.0900-20 should favor a move into the key Fibonacci confluence around 1.1000-20.
- Long-term outlook remains bullish as USD/CAD preserves the upward trend from 2014, while Bank of Canada (BoC) retains a dovish tone for monetary policy.
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USDOLLAR Daily
Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
- Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index tests June high (10,541) as U.S. 2Q GDP well-exceeds market expectations; RSI shows first overbought reading for 2014.
- Need less-dovish forward-guidance from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to favor additional USD strength; will Fed hawks finally dissent?.
- May face a near-term pullback ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls (+230K) as the ADP Employment report disappoints.
- Interim Resistance: 10,555 (50.0% retracement) to 10,561 (100% retracement)
- Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)
Release |
GMT |
Expected |
Actual |
ADP Employment Change (JUL) |
12:15 |
230K |
218K |
Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A) |
12:30 |
3.0% |
4.0% |
Personal Consumption (2Q A) |
12:30 |
1.9% |
2.5% |
Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q A) |
12:30 |
1.8% |
2.0% |
Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q A) |
12:30 |
1.9% |
2.0% |
Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Decision |
18:00 |
0.25% | |
Fed QE3 Purchases |
18:00 |
$25B | |
Fed Treasury Purchases |
18:00 |
$15B | |
Fed MBS Purchases |
18:00 |
$10B |
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
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