Pound to Look Past Jobless Claims Data, Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

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Talking Points:

Pound Unlikely to Find Momentum in an On-Trend Jobless Claims Decline
US Dollar Rebound May Continue to Pro-Taper Tone in Fed’s Beige Book
NZ Dollar Weakens as Soft CPI Erodes RBNZ Bets, Yen Falls as Stocks Rise

The March set of UK Jobless Claims figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Consensus forecasts are pointing to a 30k decline in applications for unemployment benefits. Such an outcome would fall in line with the 12-month trend average (-30.3k), offering little impetus for traders to reshape their Bank of England policy bets following the release. With that in mind, the release seems unlikely to generate a meaningful response from the British Pound absent a significant deviation from expectations.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions. The report informs policymakers’ view of the health of the recovery. That means that a relatively upbeat tone may bolster bets on continued “tapering” of QE asset purchases, offering yield-derived support for the US Dollar. News-flow supportive of a relatively hawkish policy outlook in the form of better-than-expected Retail Sales and CPI figures has helped lift the greenback from a six-month low this week.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade after CPI data showed inflation unexpectedly slowed in the first quarter, weighing against RBNZ interest rate hike expectations. The year-on-year price growth registered at 1.5 percent, down from 1.6 percent in the three months through December 2013. Economists were forecasting a print at 1.7 percent ahead of the release. The Japanese Yen likewise came under pressure as stocks advanced in Asian trade, sapping demand for the safe-haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.7 percent.

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Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
22:45	NZD	CPI (YoY) (1Q)	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%
22:45	NZD	CPI (QoQ) (1Q)	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
0:30	AUD	Westpac Leading Index (MoM)	0.0%	-	-0.1%
1:30	CNY	Entrepreneur Confidence Index (1Q)	124.3	-	121.0
1:30	CNY	Business Climate Index (1Q)	128.0	-	124.3
1:45	CNY	MNI Business Indicator (APR)	51.1	-	53.4
2:00	CNY	Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (MAR)	17.6%	18.0%	17.9%
2:00	CNY	Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)	12.2%	12.1%	11.8%
2:00	CNY	Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (MAR)	12.0%	11.9%	11.8%
2:00	CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)	8.8%	9.0%	9.7%
2:00	CNY	Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (MAR)	8.7%	8.8%	8.6%
2:00	CNY	GDP YTD (YoY) (1Q)	7.4%	7.3%	7.7%
2:00	CNY	GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q)	1.4%	1.5%	1.7%
2:00	CNY	GDP (YoY) (1Q)	7.4%	7.3%	7.7%
4:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB F)			3.8%
4:30	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB F)			6.9%
4:30	JPY	Capacity Utilization (MoM) (FEB)			5.9%

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
8:30	GBP	Claimant Count Rate (MAR)	3.4%	3.5%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Jobless Claims Change (MAR)	-30.0K	-34.6K	Medium
8:30	GBP	Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (FEB)	1.8%	1.4%	Low
8:30	GBP	Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (FEB)	1.7%	1.3%	Low
8:30	GBP	ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (FEB)	7.1%	7.2%	Medium
8:30	GBP	Employment Change (3M/3M) (FEB)	90K	105K	Low
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (MAR)	1.0%	0.3%	Medium
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (MAR F)	0.5%	0.5%	Medium
9:00	EUR	Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (MAR F)	0.8%	0.8%	Medium
9:00	CHF	ZEW Survey (Expectations) (APR)	-	19.0	Medium

Critical Levels

CCY	Supp 3	Supp 2	Supp 1	Pivot Point	Res 1	Res 2	Res 3
EUR/USD	1.3729	1.3771	1.3793	1.3813	1.3835	1.3855	1.3897
GBP/USD	1.6537	1.6625	1.6677	1.6713	1.6765	1.6801	1.6889

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Pound to Look Past Jobless Claims Data, Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

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