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XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 07, 2013

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EUR-USD moved back above the 1.3000 level in Europe and making a peak of 1.3029, which is about a two-thirds retracement of yesterday's drop. The pair had logged a three-month low of 1.2961 yesterday. Trendline resistance comes in at 1.3045 and yesterday's high is at 1.3070. Having become stretched to the downside, the rebound occurred ahead of today's ECB meeting and tomorrow's U.S. jobs report as nearer term market participants trim net short euro positions. While the ECB is widely expected to keep rates on hold today, Draghi's press statement is eagerly awaited as expectations for rate cuts in coming months have been fueled by lower than expected inflation numbers. Draghi can also be expected to deliver a relatively dovish statement with growth and inflation projections expected to be revised down. That should help curtail EUR-USD's upside potential.

EUR-USD rebounded moderately after making a fresh three-month low yesterday just under 1.2965. Short covering took it back over 1.3000, but selling pressure is likely on upticks as market participants a dovish spin from ECB chief Dragh at today's ECB press conference. The bear trend was perhaps due for a rebound, and trend resistance is now seen at 1.3030, and again at 1.30-45-50 and 1.3070 (yesterday's high).

The JPY was unphased by the as-expected BoJ decision. USD-JPY consolidated just of trend highs in a tight range centered around 94.00. Trend support is noted at 93.20-30, which encompasses both a trendline and the 20-day moving average. The BoJ has ample reason to ease policy further, but held fire ahead of the new BoJ policy board takes place for the early April meeting. Governor Shirakawa will step down March 19, prior to the end of his term on April 8. ADB Governor Kuroda is on his way to being confirmed as the next Governor, who is a strong advocate of aggressive easing.

The beleaguered GBP found only limited respite versus the USD, tracking the direction of EUR-USD after Cable hit a fresh trend low of 1.4966 (Reuters indicated price low). A report in the FT had apparently helped sterling's cause, according to a market source, as it argued that BoE Governor designate Carney will be given more powers at BoE. However, and despite the fact that recent price action looks stretched to the downside by most technical trend indicators, Cable still found good offers just above 1.5000 and gains above here have consequently proved fleeting. EUR-GBP, meanwhile, has jumped to 10-day highs just shy of 0.8700 as the market lightens euro shorts ahead of the ECB announcement and press conference. Resistance can be expected at 0.8700 and again at 0.8750 and into February's major-trend peak at 0.8764.

EUR-CHF broke higher after a model fund fished for stops through 1.2300 on Wednesday. A series of resistance levels gave way and it extended through 1.2310. The next level of important resistance lies at 1.2345 and may cap in the near-term. With EUR-USD fairly static around 1.3000, USD-CHF has taken off from 0.9405 and pushed back over 0.9480, and through option barrier exposure at 0.9450. However, option defensive selling is expected to pick up due to outstanding 0.9500 barriers. EUR-CHF should be supported on dips now after the bullish break and with risk holding up, though EUR longs may be a bit restrained ahead of today's ECB meeting.

USD-CAD spiked up to 1.0330 following the BoC announcement, where rates were left unchanged, as expected. The dovish tone of the statement had been anticipated over the past couple of days, some of which was likely priced in ahead of time. The statement included "somewhat more" subdued inflation versus the January forecast, and "material exess capacity". All in all, not indicative of tightening any time soon. Option barriers at 1.0350 were defended into the highs of 1.0337, and the pairing subsequently eased back to 1.0300 before stabilizing.

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