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XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 07, 2013

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The dollar saw a mild correction during a fairly subdued Asia session, with participants waiting for central bank decisions from the ECB and BoE and tomorrow's U.S. February payrolls report. Leads out of Asia included news that Australian trade data that showed the deficit was twice as wide as forecast in January after flooding in Queensland, while the BoJ's refrained from taking further easing measures as had been widely anticipated. Stock markets in Asia were listless, on net. In the U.S., the Fed's Beige Book reported the economy generally expanded at a "modest to moderate" pace, as expected though still helping Wall Street to a positive close.

[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD rebounded moderately after making a fresh three-month low yesterday just under 1.2965. Short covering took it back over 1.3000, but selling pressure is likely on upticks as market participants a dovish spin from ECB chief Dragh at today's ECB press conference. The bear trend was perhaps due for a rebound, and trend resistance is now seen at 1.3030, and again at 1.30-45-50 and 1.3070 (yesterday's high).

[USD, JPY]
The JPY was unphased by the as-expected BoJ decision. USD-JPY consolidated just of trend highs in a tight range centered around 94.00. Trend support is noted at 93.20-30, which encompasses both a trendline and the 20-day moving average. The BoJ has ample reason to ease policy further, but held fire ahead of the new BoJ policy board takes place for the early April meeting. Governor Shirakawa will step down March 19, prior to the end of his term on April 8. ADB Governor Kuroda is on his way to being confirmed as the next Governor, who is a strong advocate of aggressive easing.

[GBP, USD]
The beleaguered GBP managed a modest recovery versus the dollar, tracking the direction of EUR-USD, after hitting a fresh trend low of 1.4966 (Reuters indicated price low). A report in the FT apparently helped sterling's cause, as it argued that BoE Governor designate Carney will be given more powers at BoE. However, Cable still remained just shy of 1.5000 at the time of writing, while EUR-GBP was sitting just of one-week highs at 0.8660.

[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF broke higher after a model fund fished for stops through 1.2300 on Wednesday. A series of resistance levels gave way and it extended through 1.2310. The next level of important resistance lies at 1.2345 and may cap in the near-term. With EUR-USD fairly static around 1.3000, USD-CHF has taken off from 0.9405 and pushed back over 0.9480, and through option barrier exposure at 0.9450. However, option defensive selling is expected to pick up due to outstanding 0.9500 barriers. EUR-CHF should be supported on dips now after the bullish break and with risk holding up, though EUR longs may be a bit restrained ahead of today's ECB meeting.

[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD spiked up to 1.0330 following the BoC announcement, where rates were left unchanged, as expected. The dovish tone of the statement had been anticipated over the past couple of days, some of which was likely priced in ahead of time. The statement included "somewhat more" subdued inflation versus the January forecast, and "material exess capacity". All in all, not indicative of tightening any time soon. Option barriers at 1.0350 were defended into the highs of 1.0337, and the pairing subsequently eased back to 1.0300 before stabilizing.

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