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XE Market Analysis: North America - Mar 06, 2013

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The G10 FX traded inside narrow ranges. For the most part, larger flows were kept to the minimum ahead of key policy decisions on Thursday, which include the BoJ, ECB and BoE. The broad based rally across global stocks did not have a great deal of impact on FX in Asia or Europe. In fact, the dollar made up ground as short term accounts keyed off economic fundamentals, which weighed on EUR and GBP. Eurozone GDP was confirmed at -0.6% q/q and -0.9% y/y in Q4 as-expected and did not really impact. Elsewhere, JPY consolidated at slightly softer levels after the strong Wall Street close and the positive follow through in Asia and Europe. Today's U.S. calendar reveals the February ADP employment survey, January factory orders, weekly EIA petroleum inventory data, and the Beige Book for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting. The ADP jobs report will likely set the tone for Friday's official BLS report on Friday.

EUR-USD eased after fund offers over 1.3070 capped in early trade. The dollar steepened its bid after U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday and as macro account key off the better U.S. outlook ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting. ECB's Draghi is likely to maintain the dovish stance, which will leave EUR risk on the downside. Short term accounts could be tempted to fish for stops through 1.3000, which would threaten Monday's 1.2982 lows. The EUR looks likely to test 2013 lows at 1.2966 after tomorrow's ECB press conference if it hasn't given way before. Option barriers are layered from 1.2950 down to 1.2900.

JPY edged lower since the European open as intra-day accounts key off positive risk appetite. USD-JPY firmed up from the 93.20 area and steepened its bids through 93.40 as JPY cross demand went through. EUR-JPY buy stops were triggered after 122.00 offers gave way and it extended to 122.10. Another round of buy stops are noted above 122.20 and could give way if USD-JPY can sustain a move over 93.50. In recent sessions gains over 93.50 have met exporter offers and hedging related to the Japanese fiscal year-end at the end of March.

Cable triggered stops through 1.5100 to reach 1.5064 lows. There are suggestions amongst FX sources that the dollar is gaining ground after yesterday's surge in U.S. stocks, which saw the Dow post a record close. The S&P was also up 2% and the futures market is already showing strong opening gains as the lack of fresh news fueled follow through interest from momentum type names. With central bank policy meetings due from the BoE and ECB tomorrow short term accounts are placing their faith in the dollar and the U.S. outlook. The long term risk for Cable is still under 1.5000, but we think Cable could rally tomorrow if the BoE leaves policy unchanged, which is now widely expectations after yesterday's robust U.K. services PMI reading.

EUR-CHF broke higher after a model fund fished for stops through 1.2300. A series of resistance levels gave way and it extended through 1.2310. With EUR-USD fairly static around 1.3050, USD-CHF has taken off from 0.9405 and pushed back over 0.9435, leaving it within a short distance of recent highs around 0.9440 and option barrier exposure at 0.9450. EUR-CHF should be supported on dips now after the bullish break and with risk holding up, though EUR longs may be a bit restrained ahead of tomorrow's ECB meeting.

USD-CAD pulled back under 1.0260 on Tuesday, following the greenback's overall trend lower. Support remained in place at 1.0250 in Asia and early Europe, and generally, the pairing will likely be driven by pre-BoC positioning adjustments. The Bank will keep rates unchanged, though we see scope for a more dovish alteration in language in the March announcement. As a result, the USD-CAD downside is limited, despite the firmer risk backdrop. USD-CAD has seen good selling pressure over 1.0290 and good offers remain in place from 1.0300. Higher up stops are noted at 1.0320 ahead of 1.0350 barriers.

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