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XE Market Analysis: Europe - Mar 05, 2013

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The dollar eased, while EUR, GBP and AUD rallied as risk appetite improved overnight. A late rebound on Wall Street set the tone and Asian stocks posted moderate gains, which encouraged repositioning by speculative accounts. AUD posted decent gains after the RBA left rates on hold at 3.00% as expected, which enabled it to rally out of 1.0200 to 1.0250 by late on in the session. NZD-USD mirrored the gains and headed back over 0.8300 versus 0.8265 at the Asia Pacific open. Meanwhile, JPY firmed up after DPJ parliamentarian Tsumura said he could not support Iwata for BoJ deputy governor due to Iwata wanting to change BoJ law. Iwata said it may be easier to reach the inflation target if the law was revised.

[EUR, USD]
EUR-USD started the session arond 1.3025 and edged out highs just over 1.3040. Overall, it maintained a steady tone with positive risk appetite benefiting, though upward momentum was weighed to a degree by EUR-JPY. The cross fell from 121.85 to 121.20 on yen gains amid opposition to Iwata's BoJ appointment. Political uncertainty also remains a factor and selling pressure looks likely into 1.3050 and the 1.3070-80 area, where more offers are noted.

[USD, JPY]
USD-JPY fell from the 93.50 area to traded just below 93.00 amid opposition from the DPJ to Iwata's oppointment as BoJ deputy governor after he backed changing BoJ law as an option. The other deputy governor nominee Nakaso was more restrained and said he couldn't promise to deliver the 2% CPI target in two-years. After USD-JPY triggered stops through 93.00 it ran into buyers ahead of 92.90. More support is likely into the 92.75-80 area and towards 92.50-60. The upside is looking more limited amid rising exporter hedging and also activity related to the Japanese fiscal year-end at the end of the month.

[GBP, USD]
Cable is trading above 1.5100 after it squeezed up through 1.5110 during Monday's N.Y. afternoon. It added to gains in Asia after positive risk appetite weighed on the dollar tone and helped Cable to 1.5140 highs. On Monday, there wasn't a lot going though, but the combination of EUR cross heaviness and overstretched short positioning in Cable enabled a relatively good recovery since it tested 1.5000 during the European morning. Today's U.K. services sector PMI data is going to be a significant focal point for GBP traders. After weak manufacturing and construction data short term accounts are primed for a weaker outturn. An in-line headline of 51.00 could actually be a positive for Cable given short term sentiment and could fuel an extended pushed higher. A number close to 50.00 or below would see pressure immediately back on the downside and near-term support at 1.5000 could give way as BoE policy easing expectations rise.

[USD, CHF]
EUR-CHF firmed up after EUR-USD regained its poise over 1.3000 amid a rise in risk appetite. EUR-CHF steadied just under 1.2240 on Monday and closed around the 1.2250 area, which encouraged light demand in Asia on the way up to 1.2275. Further EUR upside may be limited ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting and of course the ongoing political uncertainty in Italy. USD-CHF has found a modicum of support into 0.9400 after it pulled back from 0.9440 on Monday, which compared with Friday's rally highs just over 0.9460. USD-CHF momentum should remain with the upside, though over 0.9450 movement could be challenged by supply related to outstanding option barriers.

[USD, CAD]
USD-CAD eased back some in early North American trade, with Canadian names the noted sellers. It struggled over 1.0300, managing 1.0309 highs before pulling back to 1.0270 levels and then extended to 1.0255 in Asia. The cutting of U.S. equity futures losses appeared to have helped the loonie, as did the modest rebound in oil prices. USD-CAD should continue to trade in lockstep with stock markets ahead of the BoC policy decision on Wednesday.Support is seen at 1.0260-50 now, while stops are noted over 1.0320. Higher up there is option related selling to consider ahead of 1.0350 barriers.

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